NMMA offers insight on election’s impact on boating

With Republicans gaining control of the U.S. Senate and changes at the state level across the country in this week’s midterm elections, what does that mean for the boating industry.

The National Marine Manufacturers Association provides some analysis.

Election Results and Analysis Snapshot

US Senate

• 52 Republicans (Gained 7, Lost 0 = Net 7)
  Gains= AR, CO, IO, MT, NC, SD, WV
  Loss = None
• 2 Independents (Expected to Caucus with the Democratic Party)
• 43 Democrats (Gained 0, Lost 7 = Net -7)
  Gains = None
  Loss = AR, CO, IO, MT, NC, SD, WV
• 3 Races Undetermined
  Alaska: Sullivan (R) leads Begich (D)
  Louisiana: Run-off election scheduled in December
  Virginia: Warner (D) leads Gillespie (R)

**Prior to 2014 Election Senate Snapshot: D(53), R(46), I(2)

US House of Representatives

• Republicans: 242 (Gained 14, Lost 1 = Net 13)
• Democrats: 174(Gained 1, Lost 14 = Net -13)
• Gubernatorial Races
  Republicans: 24 (Gained 4, Lost 1 = Net 3)
  Democrats: 8 (Gained 1, Lost 4 = Net -3)
  Switched Party Control: Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania.
  Incumbent Governors lost reelection bids in Illinois and Pennsylvania.

**Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut and Vermont have not reported a winner. The races are too close to call.

What does this mean for the boating industry?

You’re probably wondering first and foremost how yesterday’s vote may impact the recreational boating industry, and specifically our friends in the Congressional Boating Caucus. We already knew that 12 of our closest allies and advocates in the Congressional Boating Caucus announced their retirements earlier this year, and were not on the ballot yesterday—including one of our honorary chairmen, Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC-9), as well as senators Saxby Chambliss (GA), Tim Johnson (SD) and Carl Levin (MI).

One caucus member, Rep. Shelley Capito of West Virginia, won her senate campaign; we congratulate her on her victory and look forward to having her in the Caucus’s Senate ranks. Unfortunately, some of our Caucus members lost in their reelection battle—including Senator Kay Hagan (NC) and Rep. Joe Garcia (FL-26). All in all, of the 99 Caucus members who ran last night, 89 were victorious.

We will work with the newly elected officials to ensure that they too become committed to the recreational boating industry. The election outcome is a prime opportunity for NMMA and our partners to build new, strong relationships with many members of Congress, and educate them on the importance of recreational boating to their community and their constituents. Our government relations staff has plans to reach out to these new members as soon as possible, setting up face to face meetings to introduce them to our $37 billion industry. A “Welcome to Washington” letter and packet of information is already being prepared for when they are sworn-in in January.

BoatPAC was also very successful this year. 48 of the 54 supported candidates up for election were reelected, with four more races too close to call. We look forward to continuing our work together on behalf of the boating industry.

State Elections Offer Opportunity for New Relationships

Gubernatorial Races
Tuesday’s election was a win for Republican governors. Arkansas, Maryland and Massachusetts, states that historically elect Democrats switched control, including the defeat of one incumbent, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn. Races where the incumbents were in danger of an upset included Florida, as incumbent Governor Rick Scott fought off a tough challenge from former Governor Charlie Crist.

Minimum Wage Increase
Voters supported raising the minimum wage in four states.

• Alaska: Increase the minimum wage from $7.75 to $8.75 per hour as of January 1, 2015, and to $9.75 per hour as of January 1, 2016.
• Arkansas: Increase minimum wage from $6.25 to $7.50 per hour on January 1, 2015; to $8 per hour on January 1, 2015; to $8.50 per hour on January 1, 2017.
• Nebraska: Increase minimum wage from $7.25 to $8 per hour as of January 1, 2015, and to $9.00 per hour as of January 1, 2016.
• South Dakota: Increase minimum wage from $7.25 to $8.50 per hour, effective January 1, 2015, and would annually adjust the minimum wage by any increase in the cost of living.
• Illinois: Voters approved anon-binding advisory measure would advise the legislature to increase Illinois’s minimum wage from $8.25 to $10.00 per hour by January 1, 2015.

Federal Landscape

Senate Analysis
Tuesday’s election brought the Republicans into power for the first time since 2006; Mitch McConnell easily won his reelection campaign and come January will be the next Majority Leader. The republicans won seven seats, so far, and it is very possible they will increase that total to ten once all votes are counted.

Senators in the Congressional Boating Caucus who won reelection and will serve through 2020 are Cochran (MS), Collins (ME), Durbin (IL), Inhofe (IL), Markey (MA), Reed (RI), Schatz (HI), and Scott (SC).

In some notable outcomes that will help shape the direction of the Senate for the next two years, voters in Arkansas, Colorado and North Carolina voted out incumbent Democrats, opting for more conservative representation. Iowans also voted in a Republican in an open seat election. Republicans also kept control in Kansas and Georgia, two states where prognosticators had some doubts.

In Alaska, Senator Mark Begich is down three percent to Dan Sullivan. The race has yet to be called, but it is unlikely Begich, a strong ally of the industry, will come out victorious. And in perhaps the most surprising result, Virginia Senator Mark Warner, assumed to be a “shoo-in,” is only up about 12,000 votes over Ed Gillespie. While Warner has declared victory, no news outlet has declared him victorious.

Louisiana also remains to be determined, as no candidate received 50 percent of the vote. A runoff election between incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu and Republican Bill Cassidy will take place next month.

No matter the outcome of the remaining three races, a clear wave has shifted the power to the Republicans—setting up a divisive battle between Congress and the White House.

House Analysis
The Republican Party maintained and grew their majority in the House of Representatives; going into the 114th Congress, the Republicans hold 242 of the 435 seats. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (CA-23), who was elected to the position this summer by his peers to replace Eric Cantor, will have a prime opportunity to shape key legislative issues for the conservatives. House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Doc Hastings (WA-4) is retiring at the end of the year, creating a leadership opening on this critical committee. Speculation amongst Republican circles is that Rob Bishop (UT-1) will succeed as Chairman.

In other Committee leadership news, Caucus member Paul Ryan (Wi-1) of the Budget committee easily won re-election, and has his sights set on leading the influential Ways and Means Committee. Caucus member and chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Bill Shuster (PA-9) is expected to remain in his role, as is Caucus member and Chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Fred Upton (MI-6)—NMMA will be working with both members, and their committees, on important issues like ethanol reform.

The “Lame Duck” Agenda
All eyes are on the Capitol, as the outgoing 113th Congress is set to return to Washington after a six week recess. During the so-called “Lame Duck” period, Congress will seek to address many key issues that have been left unanswered this year, including issues affecting our industry like tax extenders. NMMA will be supporting a broad, multi-industry letter urging Congress to extend and reauthorize these important tax provisions. But there are many other issues at stake which may appear during the lame duck period.

In mid-September, the Congress passed a continuing resolution that has funded most government programs only through December 11, 2014 and House Republicans and Senate Democrats will have to agree on how long fiscal year 2015 funding can be extended and in what manner. Additionally, the 113th Congress already has punted contentious funding decisions until 2015 and will require congressional action early during the 114th Congress: the Medicare “doc fix” in March, highway funding in May, the Ex-Im Bank in June, and the debt ceiling sometime in early summer.

With Republicans in control of the Senate, it is more likely to expect another short-term continuing resolution, which will set the stage for a broader debate early in 2015 on government spending across the board.

It is nearly a certainty that the Senate will forgo all pending executive branch nominations, perhaps including a vote on a successor to departing Attorney General Eric Holder even though the White House and Senate Democrats would prefer to deal with an Attorney General nominee before the expected arrival of additional Republican Senators in January.

The Congress is expected to pass legislation authorizing the activities of the Department of Defense before it concludes its business for the year. In June, the House passed H.R. 4435, the FY 2015 National Legislation to extend expired and expiring provisions in the Internal Revenue Code through the end of 2015 was approved in the Senate Finance Committee in April. The Finance Committee’s $84 billion package is not offset. The House of Representatives opted to pass a number of bills that would make certain provisions permanent, such as the research and development tax credit, small business expensing, and bonus depreciation. However, the cost of making just those three items permanent is almost $500 billion, none of which is offset in the House-passed bills. The President has threatened to veto permanent extensions that are not paid for.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) have both expressed the hope that Congress will approve a tax extenders package during the lame duck session. House Republican leaders, on the other hand, continue to maintain that choosing certain provisions to make permanent would achieve a better long-term outcome.

Looking at 2015 and Beyond—Where will the tide take us?
A handful of the recreational boating industry’s top legislative priorities may also be addressed before the end of the year. Many of these were discussed during the 2014 American Boating Congress and include:

Ethanol and the RFS
When the 114th Congress is sworn in it will be a prime opportunity for NMMA and the industry to refocus our efforts on critical legislation. We expect a strong push to reform the Renewable Fuel Standard, and legislatively address E15. NMMA and our partner stakeholder groups have amassed strong bipartisan and bicameral support on this issue, and we look forward to working on a solution in 2015.

Sportfish Restoration and Boating Trust Fund
In addition, NMMA will work with Congress to reauthorize the Sportfish Restoration and Boating Trust Fund (SFRBTF) before a temporary extension expires in June. Similarly NMMA hopes the Export Import Bank can be reauthorized before its temporary extension expires in Early 2015—both of these programs could also be addressed during the Lame Duck session.

Reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Act
Magnuson-Stevens has been an issue NMMA has worked on extensively, and with some committee reassignments and leadership changes, we have hopes that a more comprehensive solution can be reached that addresses the recreational fishing industry’s concerns.

Overall, the political climate is likely to remain the same as it has the past few years. Congress remains deeply divided along partisan lines, and President Obama remains committed to carrying out his policy vision for America and securing his legacy. Despite this constant appearance of gridlock, important work is getting done daily in Washington, and NMMA is confident that our industry issues will be fairly addressed in the 114th Congress.

What about the 2016 elections?
Before we know it, all eyes will be on the 2016 election season. There is already rampant speculation regarding who may be running for president for both the Republicans and the Democrats, with declarations expected to begin in the late spring and early summer. If you recall, eight years ago Primary Season dominated the headlines and this year should be no different.

Stay Informed and Get Involved!
It is certainly an exciting time in Washington. NMMA’s D.C. staff will keep you informed on all relevant issues over the next few months. If you haven’t yet, join Boating United for timely issue updates and action alerts to ensure that you stay informed about local and federal activities that directly affect you and your business. And mark your calendars for the 2015 American Boating Congress, taking place in Washington May 11-13. Learn more about ABC here.

Questions about the results or the legislative road ahead for 2015? Contact Nicole Vasilaros at nvasilaros@nmma.org.