ST. LOUIS — In a recent research report, Analyst Tim Conder of Wells Fargo predicts a best-case scenario of peak cyclical marine industry retail demand is now in 2014/2015.
He writes: "Given that (1) Retail credit availability/affordability has only modestly improved YTD, (2) Weakening U.S. consumer confidence/broad retail trends, (3) Uncertain sustainability of European demand coupled w/ adverse FX, (4) Impact that expiring Bush tax cuts/Obamacare taxes will have on demand for 35'+ boats ($250K+ income customer), and (5) Gulf oil spill, we believe a best case scenario of peak cyclical industry retail demand is now in 2014/2015 and ~180-200K units."
Conder predicts 2010 will be down 10 to 15 percent with 10 percent annual growth in 2011-15.
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